May mARKet Update Webinar Summary

In ARK Invest’s May mARKet Update Webinar, CEO and CIO Cathie Wood and members of the ARK Investment Team discussed key macroeconomic indicators, earnings season developments, and emerging signals from innovation platforms. The conversation included insights on interest rates, Bitcoin resilience, SpaceX’s valuation model, regulatory shifts in healthcare, and Tesla’s progress toward autonomy. Below is a summary of the team’s responses to investor-submitted questions. For further insights, please view the full May mARKet Update Webinar here.

What are your thoughts on the Fed’s recent interest rate decision? Do you expect any rate cuts later this year?

CEO and CIO Cathie Wood emphasized that the Federal Reserve appears focused on consumer inflation expectations and the potential inflationary impact of tariffs. However, ARK views tariffs more as tax increases than drivers of inflation. Wood cited Truflation, which leads CPI inflation by 45 days, as signaling continued disinflation. Combined with weak economic activity and potentially negative second-quarter GDP, ARK expects real interest rates to become unreasonably high, prompting multiple rate cuts before year-end.

From an investor’s perspective, how are you thinking about the timing of a potential rebound? Do inflation, rates, and emerging tariffs still pose meaningful short- to mid-term risks?

Cathie Wood highlighted recent trade negotiations that could reduce tariffs and eliminate non-tariff barriers, such as those recently relaxed in India and the UK. ARK views these developments as a global tax cut rather than a rise in protectionism. Wood suggested that markets may already be pricing in this shift, with risk assets rallying accordingly. She reiterated ARK’s long-held view that innovation is best accessed through regular, disciplined exposure rather than market timing.

What stood out to you in Tesla’s recent earnings call?

Daniel Maguire, ARK’s Autonomous Technology and Robotics Research Analyst, noted that Tesla confirmed its low-cost vehicle remains on track and that its commercial robotaxi service is expected to launch in Austin by June 2025. According to ARK’s models, up to 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value by 2029 could stem from its robotaxi business. Director of Research, Autonomous Technology and Robotics Sam Korus added that Tesla’s ability to produce 5,000 vehicles per day far exceeds the scalability of peers like Waymo. Tesla’s energy storage business also continues to gain traction. Wood reinforced that Tesla’s vertically integrated, cost-efficient approach gives it a structural advantage over competitors.

I saw your newsletter about a SpaceX model coming soon. Can you share a teaser? What’s the high-level thinking on SpaceX?

Daniel Maguire shared a preview of ARK’s forthcoming open-source SpaceX valuation model, built in collaboration with Mach 33. The model is based on a flywheel framework where revenue from Starlink fuels reinvestment into launch infrastructure and Mars-related R&D. As satellite bandwidth per kilogram increases, SpaceX’s margins and growth potential improve. Sam Korus added that ARK applied Wright’s Law to project cost declines across the stack. The model incorporates assumptions around capital efficiency, satellite performance, and long-term monetization of Mars-related capabilities.

With Guardant Health newly added to ARKK, what’s your latest thinking on the name?

Multiomics Research Analyst Nemo Marjanovic explained that Guardant Health is a leader in liquid biopsy diagnostics. Already the market leader in therapy selection, the company recently received FDA approval and Medicare coverage for the first blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer. Marjanovic noted promising data in multi-cancer detection and emphasized Guardant’s efforts to build a proprietary data moat. Cathie Wood added that blood tests for early cancer detection and recurrence monitoring could transform care models and patient outcomes.

Bitcoin has shown surprising strength during recent market volatility. What do you think is driving the move?

David Puell, Research Trading Analyst and Associate Portfolio Manager, Digital Assets, pointed to Bitcoin’s significant outperformance versus both the S&P 500 and the US dollar during April. Puell attributed this to institutional flows, including ETF-related demand, and a growing appreciation of bitcoin’s dual role as both a risk-on and risk-off asset. On-chain signals show more stability and less leverage than in past bull markets. Cathie Wood emphasized bitcoin’s resilience during recent tariff volatility as further evidence of underlying demand strength.

ARK does not hold any bitcoin mining stocks. What is the reasoning behind that?

ARK’s Director of Digital Assets, Lorenzo Valente, explained that mining is a capital-intensive business with limited margin control and exposure to regulatory and hardware supply chain risks. ARK views the risk-reward trade-off of mining unfavorably compared to holding bitcoin or investing in scalable, software-driven infrastructure. While ARK actively monitors the space, Valente underscored that the team currently favors companies with stronger network effects and less operational fragility.

This week we’ve seen notable federal appointments, including the new head of the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research and the FDA’s first Chief AI Officer. What impact could these leadership changes have on healthcare?

Nemo Marjanovic emphasized that these appointments could accelerate the adoption of AI across the healthcare ecosystem. The FDA recently completed a pilot showing that AI reduced some review processes from three days to six minutes. The agency aims to expand AI integration by June. Marjanovic also praised the appointment of Vinay Prasad to the CBER, suggesting that his emphasis on rigorous, science-based evaluation will support the approval of curative over chronic therapies. Cathie Wood added that ARK expects the most profound applications of AI to emerge in healthcare and sees these regulatory changes as a pivotal moment for medical innovation.

Conclusion

The May webinar reflected ARK’s continued focus on long-term innovation trends despite near-term macroeconomic noise. From Tesla’s autonomy milestones to SpaceX’s capital-efficient growth engine and the transformative role of AI in both biotech and digital assets, ARK remains committed to investing in technologies poised to reshape the global economy. Stay tuned to our In The Know series and visit ark-funds.com for deeper insights.

Stay tuned to our In The Know video series for deeper insights about deflation, innovation, and macroeconomic developments.

Important Information

The information provided in this material is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision and is subject to change without notice. It does not constitute, either explicitly or implicitly, any provision of services or products by ARK, and investors should determine for themselves whether a particular investment management service is suitable for their investment needs. All statements made regarding companies or securities are strictly beliefs and points of view held by ARK and are not endorsements by ARK of any company or security or recommendations by ARK to buy, sell or hold any security. Historical results are not indications of future results. 

Certain of the statements contained in this material may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. ARK assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information. ARK and its clients as well as its related persons may (but do not necessarily) have financial interests in securities or issuers that are discussed. Certain information was obtained from sources that ARK believes to be reliable; however, ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party.

Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, and the market for bitcoin is subject to rapid changes and uncertainty. Bitcoin is largely unregulated and bitcoin investments may be more susceptible to fraud and manipulation than more regulated investments. Bitcoin is subject to unique and substantial risks, including significant price volatility and lack of liquidity, and theft. 

Bitcoin is subject to rapid price swings, including as a result of actions and statements by influencers and the media, changes in the supply of and demand for bitcoin, and other factors. There is no assurance that bitcoin will maintain its value over the long term.

ARK strongly encourages any investor considering an investment in bitcoin or any other digital asset to consult with a financial professional before investing. All statements made regarding bitcoin are strictly beliefs and points of view held by ARK and are not recommendations by ARK to buy, sell or hold bitcoin. Historical results are not indications of future results.

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